12th June 2009 Global pandemic and Swine flu

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The world is no more different today than it was yesterday, but….

Despite the World Health Organisation announcing that we are now facing the first Global Flu Pandemic for over 40 years, Dr Chan of the WHO was quick to point out that the pandemic will only be moderately severe – but what exactly does that mean?

People die from the flu every year, somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 in the UK alone, most are elderly and infirm, and it is unquestionable that people will die from H1N1 but it is extremely unlikely the death toll will reach the numbers being bandied around in the media.

However, there is a sting in the tail of this swine. Almost 30,000 cases have been identified as H1N1 virus so far. According to the WHO most of these cases are occurring in young working age adults. And that’s the sting – WORKING AGE.

The southern hemisphere (which is currently in the midst of its ‘cough/cold and flu’ season) are already noticing H1N1 swamping the common flu virus, in the last 10 days alone Australia has seen the number of confirmed outbreaks rocket from 300 to 1,300 and in the next ten days this is likely to be close to 4,000.

People aren’t dying in their thousands but they are becoming ill in their thousands; as these people are mostly young working age adults it is likely there will be a catastrophic effect on business.

In the UK most large business are guilty of not understanding absence trends; this will have to change, and change quickly. In both 2007 and 2008 coughs, colds and flu followed a remarkably similar pattern (see graph below):

The seasonal variance of coughs, colds and flu is noticeable. Come September 2009 we will see a dramatic rise in flu, how dramatic is a little difficult to say at the moment but we are confident that it will be significantly worse than anything seen in Australia. Public transport systems and modern open plan offices are natural ‘breeding grounds’ for the virus; London, Birmingham, Manchester will all be hit very hard and fast by the H1N1 virus when it strikes during the late autumn, so businesses will need to plan for unprecedented levels of absenteeism.

The media hype around the virus may have struck too heavy too early in the UK but now the media needs to play its part in educating business leaders in the risks they could face in the coming winter. The sensationalist stories about death need to be replaced with the, currently inevitable, forecast of A&E wards and Intensive Care Units having to close due to lack of staff, the London Tube network shutting down for weeks, police, ambulances and fire engines taking three times longer to reach the needy, the list goes on.

Business leaders must plan for high absenteeism, have contingency plans in place and remain fully briefed on the pandemic, and they only have a few months.

So perhaps tomorrow will be a little different from today.