07th August 2009 Latest updates on Swine Flu Influenza A(H1N1)

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1700 7th August – Telegraph Online – Swine flu “skivers”cost firms more than virus, say employers

Staff using the swine flu pandemic as an excuse to taketime off work are causing more disruption to businesses than the virus itself,according to employers.

Thousands of healthy workers are thought to have taken advantage ofofficial guidelines on the pandemic to extend their summer holidays.

By simply phoning the NHS swine flu hot line or visiting its website, workers can get themselves a courseof antiviral medicine and do not need a sick note from their GP for the firstseven days’ absence.

The Government is considering doubling this period to a fortnight, whichcompanies fear could make the situation worse and cost them millions of poundsin lost productivity at a time when they are struggling with the effects of therecession.

There are predictions that more workers will be tempted to call in sickas the weather improves over the next week, after the wettest July on record.

1600 6th August – Telegraph Online – Swineflu: deaths increase by nine to reach 36 as new cases fall

Deathslinked to swine flu have risen to 36 but the worst of the first wave of thepandemic is over as new cases have dropped significantly, health officialssaid.

The estimated new cases of swine flu last week was just 30,000 comparedto 110,000 the week before, showing that the first wave of the swine flupandemic has now past its peak in England, Sir Liam Donaldson, the chiefmedical officer said.

The number of deaths has increased from 27 to 36 but these have notoccurred in the last week, rather the investigations into whether they arerelated to swine flu have now been completed. Overall two thirds of the deathsare in people with serious underlying health conditions with 12 per cent inotherwise healthy people. A fifth of the deaths occurred in young people, agedup to 15-years and almost one in three of the deaths was in the 16 to 44 yearage group.

11.00 28th July – Telegraph Online

Swine flu could become resistant to Tamiflu due to over-prescribing.

Dr Holden, the British Medical Association’s lead authority on pandemic flu, said he thought the thresholds for issuing Tamifluhad been set too low, a policy which he fears will come back to haunt the Department of Health if the H1N1 virus becomes resistant to Tamiflu.

“Personally I feel the flu line will help to relieve pressure on GPs but my concern is that the threshold for giving out Tamiflu will be set too low. For most people, given that is a mild illness, the amount of medication being given out is over kill.”

As more courses of Tamiflu are distributed, GPs are seeing an increase in the number of patients who have experienced side-effects caused by the antiviral, including nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and headaches.

“Everyday GPs are saying they are seeing people with side effects from Tamiflu,”said Dr Holden.

“People are going for second and third consultations with their GP. It’s putting even more strain on the NHS.”

11.00 27th July – BBC News Online

Flu Infects 100,000 in past week

The number of new swine flu infections has doubled in the past week, according to thegovernment.

There are an estimated 100,000 new cases, with the under 14’s the worst hit. The England death toll stands at 26, the same as last week, but the DOH has reclassified the way it counts mortality. Some of the most recent deaths have been discounted as the flu had no contribution to their death.

Chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson also said that there may be “little bit of possible good news”, as whilst the new cases has increased from 55,000 to approx 100,000, the number of people in hospital has not risen accordingly. He added “there is no evidence to suggest that the virus is getting more virulent. Most people with no underlying conditions will get over the flu perfectly well”.

10.00 27th July – NHS Online

Last week, the government released a Planning Assumptions paper outlining possible scenarios for how the pandemic might develop in the UK. It says that if the current increase in cases continues, up to 30% of the population experiencing symptoms could peak in early September, although a smaller but earlier peak is also possible.

Alternatively, seasonal effects might substantially slow the epidemic in July and August – perhaps to the extent of leading to a decline in weekly cases in August, before resurgence in the autumn, for example when schools reopen. If so, the overall peak of the pandemic might be delayed to October or even later.

These forecasts and others in the report are based on a “reasonable worst case” value and should therefore not be taken as a prediction of how the pandemic will develop. Planning against the reasonable worst-case scenario will ensure, however, that plans are robust against all likely scenarios.

Mortality planning assumptions range from 3,100deaths in the UK to 65,000 deaths in a reasonable worst case scenario.
10.00 14th July

FirstCare’s live database shows that 1 in 217 people are reporting that they are going to be absent from work with cough/cold or flu-like symptoms. This rate is 3 times the usual rate expected for this time of year and the rate has risen by 300% in the last 3 weeks alone.

10.00 11th July

15 people in the UK have now died after contracting swine flu, including a patient without any underlying health problems. England’s Chief Medical Officer says that further deaths of healthy individuals will be rare but cannot be ruled out.

11:00, 15th June 2009

The first death in the UK of a person infected with the H1N1 virus has been reported in Glasgow, this is alongside 140 deaths in the US. In total 1,261 cases have been diagnosed in the UK to present, with almost 500 being in Scotland alone. It is reported that the UK death was not directly down to the virus and that the individual had “underlying health issues”. Globally, it is believed, there have been 30,000 confirmed cases and 164 deaths to date.

16:00, 12th June

On the basis of the available evidence and experts assessments, thescientific criteria for an influenza pandemic has been met. Therefore as ofThursday 11th June 2009, WHO (World Health Organisation) has raisedthe level of pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6, the first time that thisphase has been reached for 40 years.

9:00, 1st May 2009 influenza A(H1N1) & Case Update
From today, WHO (World Health Organization) will refer to the new influenza virus as influenza A(H1N1).

Below is the latest case update from the WHO, influenza A(H1N1) web site.

11 countries have officially reported 331 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 156 confirmed human cases of infection, including nine deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths – Austria (1), Canada (34), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8).

11:00, 29th April 2009 Business continuity
Organisations must take the recent level 5 flu pandemic announcement from the World Health Organisation very seriously; now is the time to put into action Business Continuity Plans.

It is crucial, if you haven’t already got a major incident policy in place, to establish one now.

The key to all plans should be to understand, on a real time basis, the effect of the flu on your organisation and how it will impact business operations. Most large businesses have been working on flu pandemic planning for a number of years but this is the first time most have had to implement them.

It is crucial that the plan is used in a timely manner; Swine Flu has already caught the world off guard and was able to spread across many countries before borders could be closed; organisations cannot afford to let the same happen to them. If you operate a call centre and wait until you have a number of cases of flu before issuing an order to implement home working then it will be too late; up to 30% of your staff will already be infected.

17:00, 28th April 2009 London and Transport
City centres will be the first to suffer in the event of a pandemic. Today’s infrastructure and shared transportation presents the ideal breeding ground for the virus.

London’s tube network is poorly ventilated and whilst modern planes have significant air filtration and purifications process very little is offered on the tube.

We always see higher transmissions rates of viruses in city centres with tube carriages offering least protection, when travelling on the tube commuters often have to hold on to a bar or rail; it is akin to holding hands with lots of people at the same time and not surprising the risk of infection is greatly enhanced.

Someone sneezing in the carriage is not likely to impact a person sitting more than a few feet away, but if that person sneezed into their hand and then gripped the rail again a number of people are likely to hold on to the same spot in the near future. Unless these people wash their hands with sufficiently hot water and soap then they next time they eat a sandwich they are likely to be ingesting the virus.